president advice and information about how to create jobs? the expectations for tomorrow's report is tepid. 168,000 new jobs are expected to be created, still not enough to keep up with population growth. the unemployment rate expected to stay at 7.8%. so, where are the jobs? anecdo anecdotally speaking, i'm hearing there are many, many job opportunities in health care right now with demographics really driving growth there. we are living longer. and technology is enabling so much for all of us. this is a big positive and that's why job creation is in health care. technology, also still growing between social media, networking and cloud computing. also job creators. manufacturing seeing some job creation with the auto sector and housing. also in growth and recovery mode right now. there has been so much washington in-fighting of course, many say that that's why our growth has turned negative. according to yesterday's report. it's time for the white house to turn its attention to jobs. and institute poll sills that encourage businesses to grow and to hire.

i can understand why some people are scratching their heads tonight as to why the jobs council is ending while we still have far too many people out of work. but those ceos have said what they had to say. their blueprint won't change. the question now is, will washington finally listen? before we go, take a look at the day on wall street. a down eer today, 50 points on e industrial average. down a fraction on the nasdaq and the s&p negative by four points. "fast money" begins right now. i'll see you tomorrow, right here, same time, "closing bell." have a great night, everybody. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. january barometer. so goes january, so goes the year with the bullish kick off to 2013 usually means for the market. house of cards can netflix play hard ball in original programming and what does it mean for media stocks? and man versus the machine. suspicious trading in nat gas ahead of today's inventory report. breaking down the latest. but first, we have to get straight to our top story, the

markets. the s&p 500 gaining 5% to have its best january since 1997. buyer or sell earl, do you think the year closes out with a gain? tim? >> buyer of the year. i see what's going on with the yields, despite the fact we have a contracting headline on the gdp, the jobless claims today gave people a reality check, that the job market is not growing fast enough. the end of the day, i think tonight, you see china pmi, i think tomorrow is the european pmis that are all better. earnings most importantly are coming in. we have a 75% beat. 14 times on the s&p and 14 1/2 times next year. this is not expensive territory for this market. it's not a landslide. it's not going to be easy. i think we pull back 4%, 5% in the next couple of weeks before we set the base. >> what do you say, guy? >> hi there. >> hey. >> i agree with hash tag to a point. but that's not a buyer for a year, but the chinese pmi will be stronger, come in with the s&p up five or six handles. the job number will give us more strength and i think we're going

to start to run out of steam. we said this for awhile, the 2% essential-year yield, we actually got there, the vix hasn't gotten to levels i thought it would be. and i still think the s&p is headed to 1550. >> here's some food for thought. when the dow finishes up january in positive territory, 90% of the time, it finishes the year in positive territory, so -- according to history, we're looking good, karen. >> and when the dow is down -- >> how bad is it? >> yeah, it usually holds. >> that's sort of interesting. it's not going to go into how we pick what to invest in, but i hope that's the case. i agree with what timmy said. could we see a small pull-back? that wouldn't be surprising to anyone. i'm long this market. >> karen, if you were to put on your soothe saying outfit and -- >> love that outfit. i love that outfit. >> oh, that -- yeah, i was going

to say, that's michael kors. me drinking coors. what i would go with here is, i think -- >> just stop. >> where are you going here? >> just stop right now, jon. just get to the point. >> get to the point. >> what i think is, we are most likely to see that correction that you're talking about, and that everybody's talked about here, sometime in the two or three weeks preceding the sequestrati sequestration, the first week in march. that's when you are most likely to see it. not necessarily tomorrow. >> let's get more on the market and whether or not january's gains will mean gains for the year. bring in rebecca patterson, the cio of bessmer trust. good to see you. rebecca, can you hear me? oh, we are having audio problems. >> i saw her -- i would say lip reader and she was saying that she loves "fast money," she really thinks that guy is brilliant. >> and handsome. >> and handsome. but it went dead. trade school. >> excellent.

>> got to have her back. we'll get her back. >> of course, but in terms of the rest -- dr. j brings up good points. we are likely to see head winds coming up when sequestration kicks in. we had michelle meyer here yesterday saying q-1 gdp might see a slight setback because of the payroll tax increase hitting the consumer. second quarter will see the impact of sequestration. that is the conventional wisdom right now we will have the automatic spending cuts. >> if you look at the personal next number, that was very, very bullish. the fed is doing -- and i think, getting what they want. you could make an argument that if you look at the first kind of two, three of the asset buying, essentially they didn't work. we are now actually seeing traction. that's a function of the market slowly recovering or what the fed is doing is finally working. i think it's a little bit of both. but again, you are getting healing. you are getting household wealth higher. this is one of the things they were targeting. >> right. okay. i believe that rebecca's issues are fixed.

>> can you hear me now? >> we thought we might be able to mime, you know, you could mime your answers, but you know, having audio is much better. >> you guys are great lip readers. that was exactly what i said. >> see that? >> well, you know. >> i'm right all the time. >> you're right all the time. rebecca, in terms of the market head winds, are you a believer in the market finishing the year on an upnote? >> well, i think -- i agree with everything that's been said. i think the world is healing. i think there are some question marks in the very short-term, after such a big run, i think it's normal -- i almost think it's a relief and encouraging to see some consolidation, but if we get that, unless it is caused by some shock, i'd be one of the many investors out there looking to add on weakness. and we just did a little bit of that last week. we added to our equity exposure, which is hard to do at these levels, but at the same time, it's comparative. we reduced our high yield. we took a little bit of profit off the table there. it's been working great for us for several years now.

so, if i take money out of high yield, where do i go? i'm going into stocks. >> and where could you be going? >> we're looking globally. this isn't just a bet on the u.s. economy. to some of the points already made earlier, i think there's opportunity still in asia, including, for now, japan. we think there's opportunities in europe, still some good valuations, especially some of the more globally centric companies. so, we're all over the place in terms of where we're going in equities. but i do think, even if, and i agree, coming sequestration might make people a little bit nervous, but it's largely priced in. gdp forecast this year is 2%, that's the consensus view and that includes the payroll tax holiday expiring and at least some sequestration. >> rebecca, it's karen. for your u.s. exposure, are you wanting to be in bigger cap or smaller cap? >> yeah, we're foam us canned a little bit more towards the large cap names. now, that's in part because we're looking at wealthy individuals here. we're taking a slightly more

defensive approach. and with our small cap, we're spread between, you know, develop market and em. and certainly, the emerging markets have been a big support for us in recent months. >> rebecca, it's tim. speaking of em, i'm curious on why em has lagged. em is down small on the year and yet i think the environment is on some level hasn't been this good for a few years. we had fantastic fund floeps into the end of the year, maybe that was a technical sell signal. what's the call in the short run? it's been a disappointi ining january. >> yeah, look, i still think there's good values out there in emerging markets. i agree. we're going to see growth improving, not by a lot, but mid-8% gdp growth in china this year and china growth tends to be even stronger in the first half of the year. there's some seasonal effects there. brazil still got a hole to climb out of in terms of growth. but it does look like the brazilian is strengthening. there is cap tam going back into

that country. mexico, to me, continues to look incredibly strong. there's some pockets of strength around the emerging market lgs and if europe can stay stable, emerging europe might be interesting this year. >> yeah, totally agree. >> rebecca, great to see you. >> thank you. >> rebecca patterson. we do want to get a check on an afterhours mover. have youcuffs? it's taken the whole show. >> guy, you missed one. >> i'm trying to put tim's cuff links on. >> talk about a wing man. this guy is the ultimate one. >> let's go to jane wells with a check on wynn. they posted results in the afterhours. jane? >> yeah, well, just listen to the vibe on the wynn conference call. it's like no other. steve wynn is saying his company is building like the successful little pig. houses of brick. well, the company beat on the top line, but had an 8 cent miss, coming in at $1.17 instead

of $1.25. the problem is macao. they had $100 million january, it's going to be better than last year, for the quarter that just ended, the v.i.p. segment fell. they spent $57 million on a project. they are going to start laying the town station the day after chinese new year. cost between $3.5 and $4 billion. and he insists it will have the necessary wow factor for the chinese. >> we don't focus very much on the top line. because so much of it is noise. we have 9% or 10% of the revenue, but we have double the amount of it in the project and less interest than our expense. so, when it comes to taking home money, we get very, very healthy. >> the good news, vegas, baby, coming back. everything better than a year ago. higher than expected win percentage of 27%. january tracking better.

problem is, of course, vegas net revenues aren't even half what they are in china. steve talked about howl he's working on this concept of an urban wynn for boston or philadelphia which won't be some, ote,v! slots in a box. and when asked if he would just like to build a hotel somewhere, not necessarily a casino, he said, quote, london is a great hotel town. but melissa, he says he would love to build a play in mayfair, though it's hard to find land there where they will let you demolish the structure and rebuild. >> little scarce there. jane, thank you. mike khouw, what's the trade on the casino stocks here? >> i think wynn's had a heck of a good run here. up over 25%. in just a couple of months. on a valuation basis, if you are not seeing that growth in macau as jane pointed out, that's where the bulk of the revenue is, 3.8 versus 1.5 in nevada. i think you probably can take a little off the table here. >> all right, coming up next, the war between netflix and cable intensifies. >> i'm a powerful friend to have right now.

perhaps your only friend. >> netflix debuting its first ever series called "house of cards" starring kevin spacey. a look at whether the pricey gamble will pay off. apple's rotten run. shares see its worth month in years. get in while the going's touch? we get the answers. and are whirlpool shares on the verge of overheating? we tackle that question in a good old fashioned street fight. back right after this. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest

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it has been a rotten run for the world's most valuable company. formerly most valuable company. apple having its worst month in january since 2008 and it's come off 38% from its highs in september. so, would you be a buyer here on a bet that perhaps the stock has, in fact, bottomed? we ran a little good bad and ugly thing, we had everybody on

the desk saying, yeah, you can buy it, looks like it's bottomed and that was not right. >> that was after we got -- right. we were bad on that and we, again, said buy it, correct? >> yes. >> okay. well, you know, we were kind of right. relative to the s&p. and i think that's the call. i think that's the trade we did with carter, that was the trade we set up, which is that apple, on a spread basis, against the s&p, will perform in my view. it's up 4% since that call. >> dr. j, what do you think? data out today saying despite the launch of the ipad mini, appling a chul little lost market share in the taplet and samsung gained share. >> it could have. and you cited what they're selling overseas in particular, in emerging markets, at $99, tablets, but they're not the same tablet. the apple product is a little bit of an aspirational product because you can trade down and get things that work an awful lot like it. and they might even run flash, which apple, of course, does not. but i think the folks that are

really dancing on apple's grave here, we talked about it, back in december on this desk and i know i'm beating a dead horse, but those who wanted to take the losses and needed to book it, now they have to wait 30 days before getting in. back in december, when you're taking gains, you don't have to wait, you can get right back in. but this particular stock is one that there's a lot of folks that were catching the falling knife, are taking losses and yet because the wash sale rule have to wait to get back in. >> yeah, i'll say, $480 was by pivot ponte. we are obviously a couple of $20 so below that. i still think if you want to buy it, to me, you're buying it above $480, looking for the breakout, i think it's no man's land. we told you is, don't get short qualcomm as a proxy to be short apple. that proved to be correct. you can see what qualcomm did yesterday. that's price now that happened in the qualcomm quarter. that's still the best play, i think, out there. >> let's move on. cutting the cord on cable. that's what netflix wants you to do. the service is going head to

head with cable providers by offering original content. it is betting $100 million. that is the new show "house of cards" will actually derail the cable train. let's take a deeper dive with rich greenfield. great to seal you. >> thank s for having this. >> can this actually work? netflix hat "lily hammer" awhile back and that didn't turn out well -- >> that was norwegian, so, you know, let's just stick with that. >> this is a different story. >> one of the interesting things about netflix is, a show's success, unlike a cnbc or any form of original programming on network television, ratings that day are not critical. it's about the show business available and being able to find an audience over time and i've seen the first two episodes of "house of cards," i'm not going to tell you if it's going to be an amazing series or not. they look like high quality television. when you look at what you're going to see tomorrow, because all 13 episodes drop tomorrow. what you're going to see is that

it looks like a show you would see on hbo or on a showtime, and so, what i want to distinguish is this is not about cord-cutting. people are not going to give up comcast to get netflix. this is more of, think about what hbo is. it's a premium service you add on to watch catalog content and watch new great original television programming. that's what netflix wants to do. think of them as a digital version of hbo. >> you think netflix could be in a strong enough position to actually demand a per subscriber fee from the cable companies for their, for internet service. how does that work? how would that work? that would really change the model. >> it happened with espn. espn obviously has a tremendous amount of weight, being the most important cable network on the planet. other than cnbc. >> of course. >> of course. but you know, when you think about the broadband world, cable operators make a ton of money. $40 a month. time warner cable reported this

morning, 6% growth in their data. so, people are paying more and more to get access to broadband. that money is not shared with any of the content or websites. >> you're a cable company. why would you share it? what is the pressure on them to share it? >> today, there's not. historically, you two, okay, if netflix isn't available, so what? i'll find another way to access content. now that netflix is getting more and more pro prior tear content, they just did a big deal with disney. doesn't start for a few years, but the only way you can watch those films in a streaming format will be via netflix. the only wail you're going to be able to watch "house of cards," so, if i that make really good television programming, you love, say you love "arrested development," say you love, you know, this show, the only wail you're going to get access to it is going to be digital. you won't be able to buy a dvd the way you might -- i love "downton abbey." i've been watching it on amazon prime. there are other ways of finding

it. this show is only going to be available via netflix. if it really is good, the question we raised yesterday is, why couldn't a company like netflix, say, hey, we're the number one people use broadband. we are a unique service with unique content. we want a piece of that fee the way cnbc gets paid. >> good for netflix, bad for -- >> really interesting for anybody in the content creation online business, so, not just netflix, but great for amazon, too. it obviously would be bad for comcast, time warner cable, even verizon and at&t, which have broadband businesses that are getting larger and larger. >> rich, thank you for stopping by. rich greenfield. mike khouw, what's the trade on netflix. what do you see in the options pits? >> the options markets had historically been fairly bearish, but that seems to be shifting. those looking at the market today probably noticed that the weekly 160 puts were the most active. you might take as bearish, but it looked like we had some initiating sellers looking to

correct about $1.80 on those. those are people willing to get long netflix if the stock drops below $1.60 and be long around the 1.5820 level. there are some persistent bullishness creeping in. >> you made a series of good and bold calls. >> ridiculously good calls, if i may. >> on netflix. >> netflix has been a great -- this was a $300ish dollar stock a year and a half ago, it's now $160, i think a lot of people think the run is over. i'm not convinced it is over yet. i understand, deep end of the pool to try to get in the stock if you haven't forayed in, but i still think the pain trade for folks will be the upside. wouldn't surprise me to see continued move higher. >> big movers of the day you might have missed. pop for immediate johnson. karen? >> a huge pop after a very big run on good earnings. you know what? it's too expensive for me here.

>> pop for pitney bowes, guy. >> i don't think good enough to get the move you saw. if you were in it, because doc just gave me the hurray, i'd be saying to take profits. better places to be. >> drop for consolation, down 17%. tim? >> yeah, these games caught in the middle of the beer bashes, as we coined it on cnbc today. they are the distributor in the united states. this deal does not leave a fair environment for u.s. consumers. this deal, i believe, gets done. this is a company, i would buy on this weakness. >> skyworks, a pop, the move, 11%. doc? >> i want to endorse what tim just said, too. i think they're going to devest some things -- >> they'll have to. >> i like that call. as far as skyworks, we talked about it last night. blowout earnings, great guidance. the stock held most of those gains, melissa, so, you have to be happy about that. >> and we have a drop here for dow chemical, down 7%. mike khouw? >> they announced earnings, 61

cent loss. the street was looking for 34 cents. that loss does include one-time items, though. if you take those out, that's a loss of 33 cents. but the bad news here is they were not talking a very bullish case about what was going on in europe. 5% sales drop there. and in china. some what lower than expected. i wouldn't buy the stock here. >> and we have a drop for baby cologne. >> huh? >> what is that? >> babies produce plenty of smells and one is producing a smell just for babies. a baby cologne, the fragrance will feature citrus, honey and melon and inspire bid the smell of baby's breath. but having your baby smell like an italian model isn't cheap. it will set you back $45. >> that's crazy. >> that is crazy. >> ridiculous. >> just dumb. >> if you ever changed a diaper? >> of course i have. >> honestly. >> of course i have. >> doesn't matter what you -- >> that's a good point. >> lose that cologne. don't be buying that. >> the other thing -- the baby smell, they smell so great, why

would you -- i'm guessing -- >> we need the baby sound here again for all the crying on this desk about the baby cologne. >> don't be doing that. they might be sensitive to it, little baby skin. >> stop crying! >> that's why they are odor free detergents. still ahead, what's at the root of unusual trading activity in the natural gas area. but first, a street fight between tim and karen is straight ahead. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box.

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♪ for a limited time, take advantage of this exceptional offer on the all-new cadillac ats. in electronic trading every second counts.javers is trackinl activity. >> what do they know and when did they know it? but now it's being asked in a very modern context here today. this all goes back to a report that started this morning at 10:30 a.m., usually a little noticed report here in washington from the department of energy about natural gas invenn toirps, as you guys know, it's extremely important to

energy traders because it immediately effects the market. the report came out at exactly 10:30 this morning. but take a look at thisrt that we've got here and you'll see what the guys over at the chicago based analysis nanex found. what we're looking at here is thousands of a second, you see 250, 500, 750, those are milliseconds before the 10:30 a.m. release time of this information. now, the early activity that nanex saw was an explosion of trading, about 250,000 contracts traded between 500 and 750 million second million milliseconds before it became public at 10:30. at 10:30, another spike in volume as the public gets access to that information and starts to react to it. what they told us is that this spike in early activity represents about 250,000 contracts that were exchanged for a total value of $4.6

million. and what that means is, people who traded at that time, even in those million seconds, were able to save money, because the information came out apparently it disappointed markets and the natural gas contracts traded lower in value after the information was released right at 10:30. so, those who sold, those 250,000 contracts, just a few hundred milliseconds before the news stood to avert a pretty significant loss here. now, i should say that we've been talking to the federal agencies here. i hung up the phone with the fbi earlier in this hour and the folks over there told me that they are, in fact, aware of this morning's trades and the fbi also telling me they are aware that this type of trading is going on in general, so, what they mean, what the implications are of that, we'll have to speculate about, but the fbi is definitely aware of what happened this morning. guys. >> eamon, thank you for that. and dr. j, you found some similar things, but in terms of what can be done, what is your

guess here? >> well, there is, of course, things that can respond in a nano-second or in that thousandth of millionth of a second, to information that comes oun news tape and that's why they sync this them up to an atomic clock to make it fair. though you and i can't react to it as fast, at least if it came out precisely 10:30 areastern time, that would be one thing. this came out 400 milliseconds or 500 milliseconds before that, that these trades, so, obviously, they learned of it just before that. we tracked about 340,000 shares, about 700 trades, roughly, melissa, that hit in the ung contract. and whether they were, like eamon said, cutting losses or not incurring as much loss or if they short them and bought them back, i can't tell. but this is something that should be investigated. >> all right. let's move on to whirlpool. reporting better than expected earnings today. the stock is up more than 107% over the past year. but not everyone is buyingntoth.

time for a good old fashioned street fight. tim carries the mantle for the bulls tonight. tough case there. karen is playing for the bears. you have 90 seconds total to make your case. >> i'll take 60 of those. >> tim? >> full disclosure, we were going to do this last week, we got cut off. today they came out with the numbers, they were fantastic. guided for 2013, $9.25 to $9.75 versus the street $9.08. 2013, much better. why? latin america is where these guys are moving. the emerging markets, the light appliances is where you want to be exposed. latin america's gone to 26% of their sales. ant anti-dumping ruling in the u.s. saves them from mexican and south korean dumps on the u.s. market. so, their margins stay supported here. this stock's had a huge run, though. it's a fantastic long-term story and exposure to the middle class. but at $117, you have a triple top. scares me. >> karen?

>> i'm going to go off of tim's it scares me at the end, which is the enormous run in the stock. i'm a value girl. the value has changed dramatically. it's not like this is a company hugely levered, so the enterprise value didn't change that much. it changed a lot because the debt really hasn't moved very much. there eelgs not a ton of debt here for a company of this size. ism also think they're facing competition from lgs of the world. they didn't used to have any competition and when they did the merger a few years ago, they were the 800-pound gorilla in the space. i don't think that's true anymore. and they are very susceptible to raw material prices going up, which i think will happen. all of those together, given the run they've had, great company, but i would not be a bull right here. >> guy? >> hi there. >> your verdict? >> well, i mean, when timmy said we were going to do this last year -- >> he threw the towel in. he gave up on the fight. he's like -- >> that hurt me. so, i'm with finerman on this. and as timmy said, potential for triple top here, dating back

from '09 or so. >> what did i say in the bull case that you -- >> supposed to do this last week and it's up 8%, so, you already conditioned our audience -- >> that was -- slowdown. what did i say on the fundamentals -- >> i didn't listen to the rest. >> oh, i see. >> i shut you down after that. >> i see. >> so, karen wins. >> i don't even -- >> this is a total scam. this happens to me every time. i get set up. great company, great call. did i say buy it tomorrow? i mean -- really. >> really, tim? coming up next on "fast," real estate titan issuing two warnings to investors, two areas he is most concerned about right now. and we go first and goal with the nfl before the super bowl. what is at stake as the 49ers and ravens get ready for the big game? back right after this. all stations come over to mission a for a final go.

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a high net worth individual group holding a conference. gary kaminski was there and had the opportunity to sit down with billionaire real estate investor sam zell. gary is on the fast line.

hey, gar. >> good afternoon, guys. i'm down here in palm beach. having an amazing conversation with sam zell. these guys really see how they truly feel. and sam had some warnings for investors in two specific areas, if we can take a listen to what he's telling you you better watch out. >> i'm less optimistic about how terrific this housing recovery is. i think that there's a significant number of houses that are still, quote unquote in purgatory. >> if we're going to have some what of a recovery, interest rates have to go up. i don't understand, you know, big commitments to fix eed inco. >> yeah, so sam is not a believer. he thinks the housing stocks have rallied, they were flat optimistic that may be ahead of itself. as far as the bond market, i this i -- i think his comment was, the price of those bonds

are going to be lower a year ago. >> in terms of housing stocks, he means the publicly traded home builders? >> i think he's referencing just the entire single family, the recovering single family homes, across the board. we had a recovery, we're off the bottom. the optimism that seems to be priced into the public equities, he doesn't buy it. >> okay, gary, thank you for phoning in. we look forward to who you'll be talking to tomorrow. and you can catch that on "the halftime report" at noon. that's a nice picture of gary. >> he's looking buff there, too. >> he climbs kilimanjaro. >> he's a sporty kind of guy. >> busting out of that jacket. >> anybody buy what sam zell -- >> yeah, think i the housing market -- timmy said it last week. i think it is way ahead of itself. the only thing i disagreen with, i wouldn't be surprised to to see the rates go lower. that's the only thing i'm different on. i agree on the housing. >> if you look at where credit is going and you look at the spread product, especially in

high yield that i think is reflective of what's going on in the housing market, it is starting to set up for a scary credit situation. >> everybody is looking forward to sunday, right? super bowl sunday. all right. the game between theers and the baltimore ravens. with declining viewership and super bowl ticket sales near five-year lows, can sunday's game still score? let's talk sports business. he joins us live from, where else, new orleans. eric, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me on, melissa. >> last year's super bowl was the most watched event in tv history. 11 milli 111 million viewers. perhaps that will be on the decline this year, ticket sales aren't as robust and tickets not fully priced as they were last year. from the nfl standpoint, what would a success be in terms of these metrics? >> a success for the super bowl is that we have it watched by the dominant number of people

doing anything or watching anything from an entertainment standpoint on sunday evening. and we're confident that's going to occur, melissa. >> eric, i had a quick question about some stats that have come out from firms that track stub hub and all the various ticket sites out there on the net. and they say the ticket prices for this one are down about 30% from last year. in other words, average ticket, when it was giants/new england was close to $3,800, at this same time, days ahead of the game. and right now, they're about $2,800 or so, for the 49e 49ers/ravens. is that just because the markets are smaller, or, what is the reason? new orleans, obviously, is a party town and that's a very large stadium. is it just that there are more seats? what are your reasons why that shrinkage? >> we don't look that carefully at the secondary market prices for tickets. we look at the numbers from time to time during the week, but that's just for general information for us. we're really not directly

involved in it. i think there's a lot of factors at play when there's a secondary market. including when people arrive in town. the real prices here are going to be transacted here when people who are dying to see the game are looking around and going to find one. and while we don't encourage that, we know that that's really the mark of the market that defines what the game is all about and what the interest is all about. and i can tell you, from new orleans, walking around, seeing our installations, seeing people who are at the different things that are news worthy, there's a tremendous amount of interest. >> eric, have fun on sunday. >> okay, melissa, thank you. >> for more on the big game, tune into sports biz tomorrow night, 7:00 p.m. brian schactman will be joined by the ravens owner, jed york, from new orleans. >> look at that. you had to think about that. he's got that daniel craig thing going. >> you like that? >> tough guy. >> is that something you like? >> let me tell you something, wise guy.

you always have to bring that -- >> you brought it up. just curious why you -- why do you care? coming up next, we go off the charments to inpoint what is making one of our traders uneasy about china and the other great rotations in the markets. it's one you might not know about. more "fast money" straight ahead.

welcome back to "fast." time to go off the charts with tim see mother. we are looking at china, which is officially in bull category. >> a lot of people think is the rally you need to get riskier assets going. i think china is crucial. people are talking about this golden cross. you have the 50 crossing over the 200 moving -- >> the green. >> we are not quite there yet and what i could caution is, i think china's had a very good run, from an exception perspective, you have a place where this market is looking tired. there are sell signals out there. china, from a fundamental perspective is setting up for a second half of the year run which is going to continue to build on what they are done. i think china pmi will show we are getting this gradual recovery. but remember, golden cross isn't always a, you know, a guarantee to a bullish outcome.

in fact, it's telling you what has already happened. you've been led to a play where the 50-day has momentum -- >> isn't that generally a good thing for an index? >> if you can hold onto this. and i would say this index looks a little exhausted. and if you look at weekly indicators, that scares me a bit. but i'm a china bull. as in, i think things are a whole lot better. the way i play that are material stocks. look at what's going on with rio tinto. volley has domestic issues, but it is a try that plchina play. baidu, still in a very interesting play. and china mobile, if they get the apple thing right, it doesn't matter, though. this is a stock that's cheap and 660 million subscribers, this is how you get exposure to the chinese consumer. >> and guy, lots of other ways you can get exposure to the chinese consumer through a lot of companies here in the united states that do business there. >> without question. timmy was just talking about rio tinto. i will stay on that theme. i go back to freeport and fcx and i sti the day they

announced those acquisitions, that was the capitulation day. the stock's performed well. it had a pretty benign day today. they are already through earnings. fcx, you get exposure there. it's not a consumer name, but i think that capitulation day has given you the opportunity to be long this stock with a very well defined stop on the down side. >> all right. let's move on here. exchange traded products have hit a record $2 trillion, including recordinflows into fixed income. our next guest says to look for this trend to continue in 2013 and he also sails that the great rotation is not taking place where you might expect. dodd kitsley is with us. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. thank you. >> so, when you think of the great rotation, as so many people are calling it, you think of rotation out of treasuries, but there's ooanother area wher this money is going. where is that? >> absolutely.

we are seeing flows are positive. they are moderated a builit. but they are going into credit, high yield, investment grade. emerging market bonds. we saw assets increase 103% last year in emerging market bond exchange-traded products. there's a clear preference from the flows that we've seen in the fourth quarter, as well as in january, where investors are preferring credit over duration. that's one of the great things that etfs offer. the ability to be very precise in certain segments of the market to reflect very different market environments. >> within an emerging market debt, is there a preference for corporates over sovereign debt? >> it's been really a function of products available. we've seen flows more in u.s. dollar than local currency, though that's gained momentum. >> which countries? >> i think emerging market equities is really the big story

of january. we've seen $13 billion flow in to those products. $7 billion in broad market. if you go into a country per speck five, just talking about china, china's been an unbelievable story. $20 billion last year, over $4 billion already in january. so, we're seeing clear demand both for broad emerging markets as well as being very specific on individual countries. >> i think you're seeing, because of the size of the credit markets in em, institutions, pension funds, big money can put money to work. that's why this is not a fad trade. this is like the u.s. bond market was, the u.s. corporate was 30-year-olds ago. this is an amazing place to invest, but i guess i'm just curious how quickly you see these guys allocating around. it looks like a scary time, when this has been one of the most popular trades. when you look at the emb, a competitor, but other -- i happen to have one up on my

screen, these things have had a pretty big pull-back. what's your call here? >> i think it is an opportunity. and we've seen flows begin to accelerate again this month. they mold rated a little bit in december. but they really picked up quite a bit, so, again, i think it's a great way to express a view, whether you want to be local currency, u.s. dollar, and we have seen that rotation again, within fixed income and that's why we think that segment of the market, after taking in $70 billion last year, can grow to a trillion dollars in the next ten years. just fixed income alone. >> dodd, great to see you. thank you for coming by. >> thank you, sir. still to come, the calls that put traders dr. j in our good, bad and ugly. there's nowhere for him to run. back right after this. dr. j in good, bad and ugly. there's nowhere for him to run. back right after this.

time to play the good, the bad and the ugly starring tonight, our own dr. j. first, the good. back in december, jon was drilling down on a natural gas play. take a listen. >> phillips 66. psx. it's up $9 in the past 25 days. love it. >> nice call. shares of psx up 15% since then and they've run 78% in the past

year. doc? >> yes! love it. still love it. had unusual activity in this name again today. they're rolling up to the 65s and looking like the stock is going to push through 70, maybe. >> wow. onto the bad. earlier this month, jon was looking for value in family dollar. >> goldman sachs just last week, though, judge, says they love it down here. i'd be willing to double down. i would be buying it at $63 a share. >> family dollar has dropped 10% since then, and it is in one of the worst performers in the s&p 500 in the month of january, doc. >> it's pathetic. see? that's that nice balanced portfolio. energy stock zooming and a crummy family dollar falling apart. i'm not going to touch family dollar or dollar general ever again. >> ever again? >> ever. >> wow. >> what's the ugly? it's good, bad and ugly. you did two, you do this -- >> what is that?

what happened there? >> see -- at 103 years old, that's what you would look like. they want people to see how old they will be, you need to save for retirement. >> you are a little jowly, but -- >> basically the same. >> keeping it real. you look a little angrier. >> i look the same. i don't even know what that means. going to be jacked at 103. let me tell you, something. i'm going to be a bad man. you might want to hang with me at 103. >> i hope so. >> go to qdoba together still. >> you tweet it, we trade it. let's get some of your tweets that you sent to the "fast money" traders. all right, so, this is for guy. sterph tweets, likely up on my johnnie black consumption, but think deo is still a buy at $120. >> i'm a johnnie black guy, too, but 17 times earnings, you have to say maybe on valuation basis, getting a little ahead of

itself. great stock, but into it now -- i wouldn't be. take profits here. >> this is for karen. michael tweets to you, how about coach? no pop. also says thanks and a love yah. >> i love yah, too. i think coach is a little bit of no man's land for me. >> whoa. >> i think, you know, it is a great company. it's a quality company. they have done an outstanding job for years and years. they have lost their way a little bit. if -- i would feel comfortable buying some here but if it started to break $50, i would cut my losses and revisit later. >> here is a quick one, tim. yo, fast. give tim seymour a shoutout for his call on erj, he never gets the love. >> and, you saw it in the street fight. look. this stock is a fantastic stock. it's had a major run. so, at a 90 rsi, almost, i would day profits here. not cheap, but a great company. let some froth come off the top.

that $4 billion deal with republic is a driver. >> first move tomorrow when we come right back. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] when you wear dentures you may not know

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